Dutch nitrogen plan asks the most from farmers, and LTO says uncertainty remains

The Dutch cabinet sent its nitrogen bill to parliament on 3 November and said plainly that the package asks a lot of the Netherlands, and the most of agriculture. The bill is a proposal, not law. Parliament still has to deal with it, and much of the detail farmers need has yet to be written.

For farmers, the questions are practical. What can still happen on their land? What will it cost? Who pays, and when will a permit come? Farm organisation LTO says the package is less bad than the cabinet’s June outline but still far from good enough. “Without certainty, there are no prospects,” said LTO chair Ger Koopmans.

What the bill would change

The bill would replace the legal nitrogen targets in the Environment and Planning Act, which are based on how much nitrogen vulnerable nature can take, with emission targets per sector. The cabinet says the current targets keep moving, and that this creates uncertainty.

Agriculture would have to emit at least 45.4 to 49.7 kilotons less ammonia by 2035 than in 2019, which the cabinet’s letter puts at 42 to 46%. The baseline matters. The same letter says agriculture already cut 13.1 kilotons between 2019 and 2024, so this is not a new cut counted from today. For 2030, the bill sets 24.8 to 27.0 kilotons as a best-efforts goal. The 2035 figure is a firm obligation.

Industry would have to halve its ammonia emissions by 2035, and transport its nitrogen oxides. The letter puts those at about 0.7 kilotons of ammonia and 80.6 kilotons of nitrogen oxides, which is a different pollutant.

A sector target is not a cut on every farm

These are targets for whole sectors, not a set percentage for each farm. What an individual farmer must do would come from separate rules that are still being drafted. The bill’s explanatory memorandum mentions a norm for dairy farms of 0.164 kilograms of ammonia per phosphate right per year. A norm per animal place for intensive livestock sectors still has to be set. Draft rules are due for consultation by 30 September 2027.

The cabinet also wants a backstop in the law: a possible cut in production rights if the 2035 target is missed. The letter calls this a stick behind the door and says the cabinet does not expect to need it. It also says it wants any such cut aimed at those lagging behind.

Near vulnerable nature

The hardest questions are for farms close to vulnerable nature. The cabinet says farming stays possible there, but differently. It expects to settle in January 2027 around which nature areas zones will come. Provinces have until 1 September 2028 to make their own plan for a zone. If they do not, national rules apply.

Those planned rules include 1.5 livestock units per hectare at area level, a limit of 170 kilograms of nitrogen per hectare per year, and rules on crop protection products. LTO stresses that the 1.5 figure would not apply to each farm but to all land in a zone together, and it still calls the rule rigid. The minister could switch off a rule where it is not needed.

The support on offer

The cabinet says a large part of its 20 billion euros is meant for farmers who want to innovate, farm less intensively, switch, move or stop, and that a scheme is open or coming for each choice. More than 9 billion euros is for the zones. The support letter also lists 1.7 billion euros for barn and management measures, 60 million euros for advice and demonstration farms, and 2.75 billion euros in extra budget for voluntary closure.

The cabinet also wants binding deals with feed suppliers, processors and supermarkets before 1 April 2027, so that they help pay. If that fails, it says it will set this in law by 1 January 2029.

The money may not cover everything. An earlier study of the June plan by Wageningen Social & Economic Research, done at the cabinet’s request, estimated that the nitrogen fund could potentially subsidise about 60% of investments for just under half of dairy farms. For running costs the figure was 20 to 25%. Farms would carry a considerable part of the cost themselves.

What the earlier study warned

That study looked at the June plan, not this week’s letters, and it is known here through the minister’s summary. It warned that costs could rise sharply. Farms with little room to invest or no successor could find the norms a problem and stop sooner, while larger farms would be better placed to carry on. The minister writes that farmers face far-reaching decisions and that a lot is being asked of them.

For the June plan, the researchers expected added value and jobs to fall by about 2 to 5% across the wider agri-food sector and by 12 to 25% in the livestock chain. The range was wide because the policy was not final, and they expected the effect on the Dutch economy to be smaller as firms and markets adapt. They did not expect a problem for food security, because lower production would mainly mean fewer exports. More detailed figures are due in spring 2027.

What LTO wants

“We did not agree to the plans and we did not walk away,” Koopmans said. LTO says it will not accept the proposed norms until a promised dashboard shows how much has been cut and how much remains, nationally, per sector, per province and per nature area. It also says farmers cannot be held to the 2035 targets if permits, schemes and financial support do not arrive in time.

LTO sees steps on zones, land rules, financial support and permits. It says setting out the draft zone rules takes the risk of a generic cut off the table, which it calls an improvement for the whole sector. The cabinet’s letter also says those rules can prevent a generic cut, while the possible cut in production rights stays as the 2035 backstop. But LTO says measures on land use amount to a flat regional shrinkage that does not help the nitrogen targets, and it calls that unacceptable. It also says farmers with uncertain permits still have no clear timetable.

LTO does not speak for every farmer. On its website, young farmers’ group NAJK says permits must become possible again, that farmers and other businesses whose nitrogen permits are in legal doubt must be legalised, and that it wants goals rather than prescribed methods.

What it means for building permits

The cabinet plans a calculation threshold from 1 July 2027. Very small amounts of nitrogen deposition would then no longer count in permit decisions. The cabinet says this could help housing projects and farmers whose permits are in doubt. It is conditional: the targets and measures must be final and the zone rules formalised. It does not guarantee any permit or any new home.

What happens next

The draft programme is open for comment from 6 November to 18 December 2026, and must be adopted by 30 June 2027. Talks with farm groups on a separate rule linking dairy herds to land will run for 3 months. A first measurement of progress follows early in 2028. Both chambers of parliament still have to consider the bill.